Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch above $3b: YES 51c This is going to be a TGE that everyone "watches". Trading at $3,5b in pre-markets right now. Pretty easy to draw similarities to Hyperliquid, which is trading at $23b FDV. Lighter at 3b is only 13% of Hyperliquid, and as the second biggest perp DEX a bigger slice of the cake seems reasonable as Lighter's OI is 20% of HL. What speaks against the bet is that there are several VCs involved, Justin Sun with a huge stake coming in from the sideline, airdrop possible to be sent to other addresses etc. Even though I don't think this should matter much initially due to cliff/vest, you never know. In group chats it seems like consensus to keep the airdrop with a watch-and-see approach on TGE, in case we get a green chart similar to what HYPE had one year ago (I def don't think it will go on the same run, but a doubling to 6b or even 8b could be possible within the first week, depending on the tokenomics ofc). Gut feeling says 4b FDV end of day 1, and thus I'll try a bet on above 3b FDV. NFA.(Route 2 FI)