Yin|Dec 23, 2025 14:48
The most famous viewpoint of Zhu Su from Three Arrows Capital during the bull market in 2021 was the proposal of the "super cycle" theory.
What does' super cycle 'mean?
Zhu Su believes that the cryptocurrency market has entered a long-term, sustained upward super cycle and will no longer experience a long bear market with a significant pullback as before. Reasons include: continuous entry of institutions
Mainstream adoption of acceleration
Global macro environment support (printing money, monetary easing, etc.)
The market will gradually rise and there will be no severe collapse of the traditional 4-year cycle
He was extremely optimistic at the time, believing that Bitcoin would steadily rise in the long term, and even predicted that BTC could reach $2.5 million (if it replaced some of the gold market value), and the entire cryptocurrency market would enter a new normal of "up only". This theory was highly sought after by many people in 2021, and it also made him and 3AC famous in the bull market (while managing billions of dollars in assets).
Zhu Su has been bullish on Ethereum (ETH) multiple times in 2021, with the most famous public record including mentioning on Bankless podcasts that if EIP-1559 and PoS proceed smoothly, ETH could reach as low as $25000.
What was the result? Unfortunately, reality is cruel. The collapse of Terra/LUNA in 2022 and the wave of leveraged liquidation directly led to the bankruptcy of 3AC (with billions of dollars in debt). Zhu Su himself publicly admitted in May 2022 that the super cycle price theory was unfortunately wrong, but he still believed that encryption would continue to thrive.
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