貝格先生🐢|Dec 23, 2025 01:47
USDT Transfer Trend Data Update: Precursor of Trend Initiation ❓
I don't know how many friends remember that when I proposed the "Shallow Bear Script" a month ago,
I have written a series of analyses (https://((((x.com)))/market_gegar/status/1994586575015948555),
To illustrate why I am willing to buy 70% of the position at 82K.
One of the criteria at that time was the "USDT transfer trend",
Today, I will report the latest status of this indicator to you all again :
As usual, let me first help you review the core principles of this indicator :
Smooth the total amount of USDT inflows/outflows into/from the exchange using SMA (30)
Large amount of USDT flowing into the exchange: indicating a significant increase in market willingness to buy at the bottom
Large amount of USDT outflows from the exchange: indicating that funds are making profits and exiting the market
A more complete and detailed concept explanation can be found in the following citation
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What I'm going to share with you today is another pattern of this indicator :
The indicator shows a huge amount of green color and then turns red, which is a precursor to the start of the trend
As shown in the attached figure, I will list the time since the end of the bear year in 2023 when the above conditions have occurred,
In black circles Marked out, we can clearly see:
Every time the above conditions are met, there is a good upward trend afterwards 」
Moreover, the same situation also occurred between 2022 and 2023,
Including February 2022, January 2023, and March 2023 ... wait,
For the sake of image cleanliness, only text will be used here.
As for the reasons behind it, it is also quite easy to understand:
one ️⃣ The indicator shows a huge amount of green color = A large amount of funds have entered the market (see citation below for details)
two ️⃣ Subsequently, the indicators turned red :
Due to the use of SMA (30) smoothing in my indicator algorithm,
Within 30 days after the massive influx of USDT into the exchange, the data will be excluded due to algorithms,
Therefore, it will also lead to a rapid decline and turn red in indicator values.
Observant friends may have noticed that this coincides with my repeated emphasis on the concept n times:
The market usually has a recovery period of 1-2 months after a major drop.
In other words, 1-2 months after the massive influx of bottom fishing funds into the market,
There is a considerable probability of a rising market trend
But it should be noted that ⚠️:
This' green to red 'pattern does not represent a' periodic 'signal,
But it can only be regarded as a signal with "mid-term band characteristics".
The most classic case is in February 2022:
At that time, the market first plummeted from 69K to 33K, and then signals appeared in February,
BTC rebounded nearly 50% from 33K and then peaked again in April, opening a new main downtrend,
This rebound was later proven to be a 'relay structure of a deep bear market'.
Time returns to the present, no matter what:
The huge amount of bottom fishing funds that appeared a month ago is definitely a good thing for future upward expectations ✅
The turning red of the indicator indicates that the repair period may have come to an end;
As for whether to successfully complete the 'Shallow Bear Script' or to once again become a downtrend relay,
We don't have a crystal ball, so we can't know the answer;
But according to the pattern shared in this article, perhaps at least a decent upward trend can be expected
The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone
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Related reading resources
Shallow Bear Bottom Picking Series Analysis Posts (Full): Simplified Summary Compilation
https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/1994586575015948555
Shallow Bear Bottom Picking Series Analysis Post (1): BTC Fund Incremental Trend bottoming out
https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/1992771608340267037
Shallow Bear Bottom Picking Series Analysis Post (2): Slowdown of US Fund Selling Intensity
https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/1993134413979451463
Shallow Bear Bottom Hunting Series Analysis Post (3): Major Surrender Events in the Market
https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/1993495803382636866
Shallow Bear Bottom Picking Series Analysis Post (4): The Inflow of Massive Bottom Picking Funds
https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/1994220064774729883
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