貝格先生🐢|12月 22, 2025 01:46
Attracting funds: The strongest BTC dominators are still increasing their holdings ⛽ ️
Old friends know that I often talked to you about a very powerful indicator before:
The proportion of participants holding BTC chips between 1y and 3y 」。
After two months, I will report the latest status of this indicator to you again today;
If you are a new friend or not very familiar with this indicator, you can first refer to the explanation in the following citation 。
As shown in the attached figure, the purple indicator represents the proportion of market participants holding chips for 1-3 years.
As usual, before starting the main text, let me help you review the core concepts of this indicator :
Grouping BTC chip holders based on 'holding time'
Capture chip holders with a holding time between 1y and 3y
Calculate the proportion of these people in the entire market
The lower the proportion, the fewer people in this ethnic group, usually caused by selling
From the graph, we can clearly see that this group of people has performed very strongly in the BTC cycle:
➡️ Not a diamond trader, but a real cyclical trader who buys and sells
➡️ There is a high correlation between its proportion and BTC's bull bear cycle
➡️ The proportion has bottomed out (they have sold out), and BTC has peaked
➡️ The proportion has peaked (they have completed fundraising), and BTC has bottomed out
I have provided a detailed explanation of the concept in the following article,
Interested friends can refer to the following link (highly recommended reading) :
Exploring the cyclical nature of BTC's gradual disappearance from the perspective of on chain data
https://(((((((x.com)))))))/market_beggar/status/1910515596497936757
//
Returning to the main text, although the rate of change in this indicator is very slow,
But since I published the analysis post (citation below) two months ago,
This indicator has always maintained a steady upward trend
In addition, in the article "Exploring the Periodicity of BTC's Gradual Disappearance from the Perspective of On Chain Data" mentioned above,
Once explicitly mentioned a view on future trends:
If the cyclicality gradually disappears in the future, will there be more situations where a "short-term bottoming out" is followed by a new round of main rising waves ❓"
This post was posted by me in April of this year, and interestingly:
Combining the concept of "Shallow Bear Script" that I recently proposed (see the summary at the end of the article for details),
If the Shallow Bear script really succeeds, it may be able to corroborate the views I put forward in April.
In other words, due to the influx of a large amount of external capital, the bottom of the 1y~3y proportion continues to rise,
If the dominant funds in the future market complete a "baton handover", it may represent:
In the future, we don't need to wait until the proportion of 1y to 3y reaches an extremely high level to reach the bottom ‼️
Speak more plainly:
If BTC can break free from the curse of the four-year cycle and successfully complete the 'Shallow Bear Script',
That can break the historical pattern of "1y~3y ethnic proportion",
Before the proportion rises to a high level, it smoothly bottomed out and started a new main upward trend
Regardless of the outcome, you and I are witnesses to history .
That's all for today's content. In the new week, I wish everyone smooth trading
//
Related reading resources
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https://(((((((x.com)))))))/market_beggar/status/2001105996031385719
The second top that attracts more intelligent long-term holders to sell
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Shallow bear bargain hunting script: Extreme deep callback may no longer exist
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Shallow Bear Bottom Picking Series Analysis Posts (Full): Simplified Summary Compilation
https://(((((((x.com)))))))/market_beggar/status/1994586575015948555
Periodic Strong Bottom Signal: Analyzing the Market from the Perspective of Stable Coin Supply Ratio
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