Exclusive views during lunchtime Hong Kong stocks: At present, there is a lack of direct positive news, and market sentiment is more affected by personnel uncertainty at the Federal Reserve. If the new chairman leans towards hawks, the strengthening of the US dollar may drive capital outflows, putting pressure on Hong Kong stocks, especially high volatility technology growth stocks. Meanwhile, the tightening of encryption regulations in mainland China may drag down blockchain concept stocks, putting pressure on the sentiment of the technology sector. US shares In the short term, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January 2026 to be close to 78%, providing valuation support for risk assets. But the candidate for the chairman is undecided, and coupled with the possibility of GDP and PCE data exceeding expectations next week, it may trigger an upward revision of interest rate expectations at any time, causing fluctuations in interest rate sensitive sectors such as technology stocks. BlackRock executives participate in the competition, and if they win, it may help smooth policy communication and reduce market misjudgments. Virtual currency: The United States plans to exempt stablecoin transaction taxes below $200, and with a clear roadmap for Ethereum security upgrades, it will be beneficial for institutional and retail users to participate in the long term. But the short-term risk lies in the confidence fluctuations caused by Vitalik's large-scale asset sales, as well as the possibility of regulatory escalation due to frequent fraud incidents. Overall, mainstream currencies benefit from institutional development, but the market for altcoins relies more on specific project narratives, resulting in significant differentiation. Suggestions that can be implemented today: Pay attention to the final GDP and PCE data of the United States around December 27th. If the data is stronger than expected, it is necessary to guard against the risk of short-term pullback in the US technology sector. Track the progress of the nomination of the chairman of the Federal Reserve. If Hassett wins and the policy tends to be hawkish, the capital of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks may be tightened at the same time, and the positions of high valued assets may be adjusted in advance. Pay attention to the time when the US Stable Currency Tax Exemption Act enters the Congress for voting. Once it is advanced, it may become a short-term catalyst for the crypto market, especially for the stable currency and Ethereum ecological related assets. Exclusive viewpoint