AB Kuai.Dong|12月 21, 2025 03:25
This morning, this event blew up in the English-speaking community. Sean Farrell, who shared this perspective, has just responded. He mentioned that Tom Lee has multiple analysts on his team, and he specifically handles crypto-related matters.
The reason for publishing this bearish view is mainly about managing position risk in the first half of next year, rather than being strongly bearish.
He believes market risks still exist, such as:
Government shutdowns, trade policy fluctuations, uncertainty around AI capital expenditures, potential changes in the Fed chair, tight high-yield bond spreads, and very low cross-asset volatility.
Considering fund flows, BTC is currently in a valuation no-man’s land. In the long term, ETF demand will improve as brokerage channels integrate, but in the short term, there’s still pressure, such as old coin holders selling, miners offloading coins, the potential removal of MicroStrategy ($MSTR) from the MSCI U.S. stock index, and funds redeeming due to meeting their maturity dates.
So, he updated his latest market outlook: The crypto market will likely see a rebound early in the year, followed by another pullback in the first half, creating better bottoming opportunities before the end of the year.
He also explained why his view differs from Tom Lee’s. Tom Lee’s research primarily serves institutional investors, who typically only allocate 1–5% of their portfolio to $BTC and $ETH. As a result, their outlook focuses on long-term price trends, ensuring strong discipline and a long-term perspective.
However, as an internal report analyst responsible for this sector, Sean’s goal is to assist clients and subscribers who have substantial crypto positions (around 20% or more of their portfolio) in outperforming the market by adjusting positions across different cycles.
This difference in focus has led to the internal disagreement with Tom Lee’s view. Internally, they believe the first half of the year will be bleak, while Tom Lee expects new highs in January. Sean understands why people are upset at this moment.
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