The official research report mentioned that in the current BTC chip structure, a large number of top lock ups have accumulated in the range of $9.3w to $12w, and the resulting supply distribution reflects the market structure of "top heavy, top light", which is similar to the situation at the beginning of 2022. (Figure 1) But in fact, in this cycle, as long as BTC stays at a certain position for a long time, it will generate a large amount of chip accumulation, and even after breaking through historical highs, this strong buying intention has not weakened. (Figure 2) Just like: -From July to October 2023, it accumulated between 2.6w-30000, and then broke through the accumulation zone with the speculation of BlackRock's ETF application event; -From June to October of 24 years, it accumulated between 5.9w and 6.9w, and then made a breakthrough with the victory of President Trump ..... -From December 24 to May 25, it accumulated between 9.2w and 10.5w, and then broke through with the lifting of the tariff crisis ..... Therefore, I personally believe that just because there is a pile of chips and it is similar to January 2022 (the beginning of the bull to bear transition), we cannot assume that BTC will further replicate the trend after 2022 after being constrained by selling pressure from above during its rebound. If the future macro cycle enters a loose phase, releasing liquidity, increasing risk appetite, and restoring market confidence, it is not ruled out that it may once again break through the chip accumulation area above. After all, the uncontrolled inflation at the beginning of 2022 (CPI>7%), the Fed's clear shift towards interest rate hikes and balance sheet tightening, the rapid rise in real interest rates, and the severe pressure on BTC chips, combined with multiple factors, are the "overall gate" of the 2022 bear market. ---------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits