A trader once again bet against the market, optimistic about a 25 basis point interest rate cut in January next year BlockBeats News: On December 15th, according to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of no change in interest rates at the Federal Reserve's January meeting is as high as 78%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 21%. The market consensus is clear: although inflation has eased, the Federal Reserve usually waits for economic data to stabilize for a period of time before taking action, and is unlikely to make a significant turn immediately at the beginning of the year. However, the operation of the account Thiswaysir was completely opposite: he bet against the trend that $30000 would lower interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and even held 100000 "lottery positions" with a 50 basis point rate cut. This is not his first time betting against market consensus. In mid November, when the mainstream market sentiment believed that an economic recession and falling inflation would force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (with a probability of up to 80% at one point), Thiswaysir went against the trend and bought nearly $15000 at an average price of 32c, accurately betting on a 25 basis point rate cut in December. This transaction ultimately resulted in him making a profit of nearly $25000. This is also his only historical transaction. If Thiswaysir's interpretation of the market is once again correct, the initial capital of $15000 he previously invested will be inflated to $150000 through compound interest in January.