Phyrex|12月 13, 2025 17:20
Saturday passed by quietly like this. I was a bit worried that the Oracle situation might increase pessimism over the weekend, but it turns out it wasn’t too serious. Bitcoin only stayed within a very small range of fluctuations. But as for next week, who knows? There are three major data points coming up next week. First is Tuesday’s non-farm payrolls report. Everyone knows how important labor data is—Powell himself has said that the main reason for the December rate cut is concerns over weak labor data.
So non-farm payrolls remain the most important data right now, mainly focusing on unemployment rate, job numbers, and wage changes. The market currently expects the unemployment rate to be 4.4%. The higher this number, the worse the economic outlook, but it’s more favorable for rate cuts. The higher the job numbers, the stronger the economic resilience, which is less favorable for rate cuts. The smaller the wage growth, the weaker the economic development, but again, it’s favorable for rate cuts. Overall, non-farm payroll data is like turning bad news into good news.
Then there’s Thursday’s CPI data—this one is definitely better the lower it is. And finally, Friday brings Japan’s interest rate adjustment. A 25 basis point hike seems inevitable this time. Although it’s bearish news, the market has already fully priced it in, so the impact after the announcement shouldn’t be too strong. After next week, it’s Christmas, and the holiday mode kicks in until after New Year’s.
Back to Bitcoin’s data—weekend trading volume dropped significantly, finally returning to a more normal level. But once the workweek starts next week, it might pick up again. Higher trading volume indicates that overall investor sentiment is still relatively tense, especially among short-term investors. With three major data points next week, volatility is likely to increase.
Nothing much else to say—take the weekend to rest up. The chip structure remains stable, and there’s no sign of investor panic. It feels like we’re in the process of stabilizing and building a new bottom, but it might take some time.
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