In Macau casinos, except for Texas, most of the games are guessing numbers or slot machines. You can bet on the size at any time, there's no need to bet here, but there are people from all over the world who will take 50, 500, 5000 yuan to play Zhuangxian, 21:00, bet big and small. A large area is all a game, it's just about which table has more people and which table has fewer people, there's no difference. Passers by, some watch the excitement, some think the dealer is a woman, and some see who has more luck. Feng Wuxiang chose to play slot machines because his mother-in-law had actually won hundreds of thousands of Singapore dollars in Singapore. So we exchanged 10000 chips and went to play slot machines, choosing for a while. We looked at the gameplay, where there were more people, and which game had more prize pools. The slot machine starts. We recharge 2000 yuan each time, and the balance fluctuation in the slot machine does not exceed 3900, for example: 2000 → 3000 → 3900 → 3000 → 1000 → 2500 → 2900 → 1000 → 0. After losing three 2000 yuan, Feng Wuxiang suggested that we continue playing because we had already played for an hour. He went to find a 'go to girl'. We continued playing for about 40 minutes, and by the time he came back, we had only 3900 yuan left. He suggested playing with him directly and then switching to him to play. Sure enough, it's different after changing people. In no time, I won a small prize and my balance reached 19000. After playing for half an hour, there were only 13000 left. I suggest not playing anymore. Take out the 3000 yuan you won and pass three levels. If you pass three levels, it will be 24000 yuan, and each person will receive 8000 yuan. Everyone accepted, we went to find a pleasing machine and bet three small shots in a row. Sure enough, I won 24000 and happily traded back home. Many people refer to the money they "win" from gambling as "earned". Although it can be understood in any way, I think this is exactly what the concept of "volatility" expresses: Upward fluctuations are profitable, while downward fluctuations are unprofitable. Being unemployed and unable to find a job is a fluctuation; Buying gold can cause fluctuations in price; People who do not buy Bitcoin also experience fluctuations after Bitcoin reaches $100000 (those who do not buy lose money); Salary increases also fluctuate. So I think the concept of 'The Idiot Who Walks Randomly' is really good. We all walk alone in the midst of fluctuations, and occasional fluctuations/critical hits make us feel like geniuses/SBs. The casino just compressed this matter a bit more clearly. The chips rise and fall quickly, and the results are immediately feedback, which can easily lead to illusions: When you win, you will think that your judgment is correct, When you lose, you may feel unlucky or just missed the rhythm. But if you prolong time, it's actually no different from life. The people you saw in the casino, Some players start adding fuel after winning a few games, Some even want to take the path that they should have won just now after losing, They all seem very confident, but what they are confident about is actually the previous fluctuation. Many people are not betting, It's using my current actions to prove that I wasn't lucky just now. Slot machines are more obvious. It has no story, no opponent, no technology, There is only one curve that keeps shaking up and down. You're not pressing a button, you're expecting the 'next result'. And this expectation will be amplified with every small win, Rationalize every small loss. So when the balance goes from 2000 to 3900, people will feel like they have hit the nail on the head; When it drops back from 3900 to 1000, it feels like 'if you try again, you'll go back'. Actually, nothing happened, just the fluctuation went through a period of time. It's also interesting to win 19000 after changing people. It's too easy to be interpreted as' the person is right '. But if you replace the person and give them the same time and the same random sequence, The result is likely to be fluctuating. People naturally tend to find an 'understandable reason' for changes. People are not very accepting: There was no reason for this matter in the first place. So later on, I increasingly felt that, The so-called 'earned or not earned', Many times, you just happen to be standing in the upper half of a certain period of fluctuation. If you leave, it becomes profit; If you don't leave, it may just be halfway through. Unemployment, salary increases, and asset fluctuations are actually the same structure. It's just that the cycle is longer, the feedback is slower, and people are more likely to mistake luck for ability, Take a smooth phase as the trend itself. And the real danger is not losing money, It's you in a certain upward wave, Start restructuring your understanding of the world. One good thing about casinos is that: It makes you quickly realize that you can't control anything. The downside is that: Not everyone will take this conclusion away. More people will only remember that one win. We won 24000 that day and went home in exchange. The matter ended just right here. If you sit a little longer, This article may not be in the current direction. --The wind has no direction, I have direction