CyrilXBT
CyrilXBT|12月 11, 2025 02:15
POWELL JUST FLIPPED THE MACRO SWITCH (AGAIN) – HERE’S WHAT IT MEANS FOR BTC 👇 The Fed just: > Cut rates 25 bps to 3.5–3.75% (3rd cut this year) > Said policy is now “near neutral” > Signaled only one more cut in 2026 in their projections > And blamed the latest inflation overshoot mostly on Trump tariffs, calling it a one-time price shock Translation in normal language: • We’re not in a money-printing party yet, but the max pain rate regime is over. • Powell wants flexibility – no pre-set path, “we’ll see how the data comes in” mode. • The committee is split (9–3 vote), which means more volatility around each macro print. What this means for BTC & crypto: 1. Short term = chop, not instant moon The market expected this cut. No surprise = no guaranteed vertical candle. You’ll likely see: > Knee-jerk moves on BTC > Then everyone re-pricing what “one cut in 2026” really means 2. Medium term = quietly bullish for BTC Three cuts this year + talk of being near neutral = > Less pressure on risk assets > Easier conditions for liquidity to slowly come back Crypto loves directional liquidity, not max-tightening. This is a step in the right direction, even if it’s not full send yet. 3. Altcoins still have to wait their turn This is still a BTC + majors first environment: > Fed is easing, but very carefully > Only one projected cut next year = “higher for longer – lite” That usually means: BTC leads, ETH follows, alts get proper rotation later once: > Cuts continue or the market believes more easing is coming > Macro data (jobs + inflation) confirm the Fed can keep loosening How I’d think about it as a crypto trader: > Don’t trade this like a new QE announcement – it’s not. > Respect that we’re moving from “full headwind” → “light tailwind.” > Bias: constructive for BTC over the next months, but with ugly volatility around every macro print. Macro is slowly lining up for another risk-on leg. The mistake now is nuking your bags because the move wasn’t instant, or aping alts like we’re already in 2021-style euphoria.(CyrilXBT)
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