CyrilXBT|12月 11, 2025 02:15
POWELL JUST FLIPPED THE MACRO SWITCH (AGAIN) – HERE’S WHAT IT MEANS FOR BTC 👇
The Fed just:
> Cut rates 25 bps to 3.5–3.75% (3rd cut this year)
> Said policy is now “near neutral”
> Signaled only one more cut in 2026 in their projections
> And blamed the latest inflation overshoot mostly on Trump tariffs, calling it a one-time price shock
Translation in normal language:
• We’re not in a money-printing party yet, but the max pain rate regime is over.
• Powell wants flexibility – no pre-set path, “we’ll see how the data comes in” mode.
• The committee is split (9–3 vote), which means more volatility around each macro print.
What this means for BTC & crypto:
1. Short term = chop, not instant moon
The market expected this cut. No surprise = no guaranteed vertical candle.
You’ll likely see:
> Knee-jerk moves on BTC
> Then everyone re-pricing what “one cut in 2026” really means
2. Medium term = quietly bullish for BTC
Three cuts this year + talk of being near neutral =
> Less pressure on risk assets
> Easier conditions for liquidity to slowly come back
Crypto loves directional liquidity, not max-tightening. This is a step in the right direction, even if it’s not full send yet.
3. Altcoins still have to wait their turn
This is still a BTC + majors first environment:
> Fed is easing, but very carefully
> Only one projected cut next year = “higher for longer – lite”
That usually means: BTC leads, ETH follows, alts get proper rotation later once:
> Cuts continue or the market believes more easing is coming
> Macro data (jobs + inflation) confirm the Fed can keep loosening
How I’d think about it as a crypto trader:
> Don’t trade this like a new QE announcement – it’s not.
> Respect that we’re moving from “full headwind” → “light tailwind.”
> Bias: constructive for BTC over the next months, but with ugly volatility around every macro print.
Macro is slowly lining up for another risk-on leg. The mistake now is nuking your bags because the move wasn’t instant, or aping alts like we’re already in 2021-style euphoria.(CyrilXBT)
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