My base case for today's FOMC 1) 25bp cut - almost fully priced-in (~90%). 2) Powell raises the bar for additional cuts - highly anticipated. 3) No major surprises on the dots. => priced-in Hawkish cut = chop The possible surprise: announcement of T-Bill Reserve Management Purchases ($40B-$60B /mo) to increase banking system liquidity. Mechanically identical to QE without removing duration from the market - anticipated by many for 2026, only a minority see it announced today. T-bill RMP aka QE-ultralite would represent a mild tailwind, but please note it is not QE, don't get too excited.(Alex Krüger)