Macro market analysis on May 25, 2025 Technical aspect: No matter how the pancake rebounds, it is highly likely to be a chance to escape! The high-altitude approach is currently the most reasonable solution! The extreme pressure level is in the range of 97000~102000, and the weekly level has entered a downward trend. Currently, it is an oversold rebound at the weekly level, a high death cross at the monthly MACD level, and a downward trend at the daily level. In short, it will not fall suddenly, so please be patient and wait for the opportunity. Macro level: There are three important time points in December, and the market will fluctuate around these three time points in the next three weeks. Here is a summary for everyone; The first one: On December 11th, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision. Previously, it was expected that there would be no interest rate cut in December, but now the probability of an expected rate cut is very high, at 87%; Secondly, on December 19th, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision. Previously, the market expected that the Bank of Japan would not raise interest rates in December, but this Monday's public statement by the Bank of Japan Governor hinted that there was a high probability of a rate hike on the 19th; The third one: December 26th, the year-end high volume option delivery of Da Bing, which can be said to be the most important delivery date in the options market. It is both the fourth quarter end delivery time and the last delivery time at the end of the year, so the magnitude is large, with a nominal price of 23 billion yuan; The first two are both significant news, as the decisions of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates were originally quite important. However, this time, coupled with market expectations for both sides being different from the initial expectations, the market uncertainty brought about will be even greater; The third one is option data. Currently, the biggest pain point for pancake options is 100000 yuan, and the maximum peak of PUT is at 84 yuan. This indicates that it is difficult for pancake prices to break through and stabilize at 100000 yuan in December. Institutions have also implemented put protection at the position of 84 yuan. A few days ago, after the pancake fell below 84 yuan, it did not bottom out and quickly rebounded, which is likely the same reason.