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TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|12月 05, 2025 01:53
Shadow Fed Chair Hassett has officially started his first substantial move. He explicitly called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting. This move, timed during the Fed’s blackout period when officials are forced to remain silent, is no coincidence—it’s a calculated power grab. By speaking directly to the market while the official chair is unable to respond, he’s asserting his own elevated position. Judging by the market’s hypersensitivity and immediate pricing in of Hassett’s remarks, Wall Street has essentially voted with its feet, tacitly acknowledging him as the next Fed Chair. Trump’s seemingly wavering attitude over the past couple of days is actually a masterclass in expectation management. He’s not hesitating; he’s executing a meticulously planned strategy: warm-up → announcement → shadow control → official takeover. The current shadow control phase is the most critical. It sets up a perfect trap for Powell: if the Fed cuts rates next week, it could be seen as yielding to the shadow chair’s will, giving Hassett an early show of authority and allowing Trump to preemptively take control of the Fed. If the Fed doesn’t cut rates, any future economic fluctuations will become ammunition for Trump’s team to attack Powell. This entire playbook is designed to gradually desensitize the market and acclimate it to a new power dynamic (shifting from data-driven to politically-driven decision-making). By making a strong statement and ensuring control, they’re clearing all obstacles to seamlessly install their preferred candidate as the Fed Chair.
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Timeline

12月 31, 09:57The US dollar is likely to record its worst annual performance since 2017.
12月 31, 01:46Federal Reserve's 2026 Interest Rate Path Divergence Intensifies
12月 30, 19:45Some Federal Reserve officials are cautious about cutting interest rates.
12月 22, 11:34FOMC members are unwilling to support a fourth consecutive rate cut.
12月 21, 08:49Tom Lee's Outlook on Market Trends for 2026
12月 19, 22:43Federal Reserve Governor Milan: Interest rates should be lowered to address risks in the job market
12月 19, 14:25The default rate of U.S. companies has decreased, but the risk of re-default remains.
12月 18, 14:02U.S. CPI rises by 2.7%, lower than expected
12月 18, 13:35The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 has risen to 28.8%.
12月 18, 13:01Hassett stated that it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates now.

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