Orange Evening Interpretation 12.2 The negative effect of interest rate hikes in Japan continues to grow. Now the probability of interest rate hikes of 25% in December on the polymarket has reached 81%, and then the yield of Japan's two-year treasury bond has broken 1%, which is the highest since 2008. The five-year treasury bond have also hit a new high since 2008, with the yen appreciating by 1%. These data add up to a very scary expectation. Japan's decades of easing will become history. Yesterday's article mentioned that Japan's interest rate hike has a huge impact on the global financial market. It is said that the amount of funds involved in yen arbitrage trading may reach 3-5 trillion US dollars, which means that a considerable proportion of risk assets now come from the Bank of Japan. Therefore, once interest rates are raised, it will inevitably lead to a decrease in interest rate spreads, and funds may quickly withdraw from risk assets. Previously, Jump cleared ETH That's why mainstream cryptocurrencies have almost the best liquidity, and can quickly retrieve cash at any time to prevent liquidation tasks. The 312 crash during the pandemic was also due to the urgent need for cash in the market, so the cryptocurrency market peaked at the forefront. However, everyone can see the market trend afterwards. True value assets will not be killed by liquidity, and funds may be passively withdrawn, but they will inevitably come back in some form in the future. The 1011 tragedy was a liquidity crisis for market makers, and in the following month, Tether and Circle printed nearly $20 billion. Although the cryptocurrency price has not returned yet, even due to dat and ETF The withdrawal of funds and the decrease in expectations of interest rate cuts have led to lower prices, but these are short-term factors that do not prevent the world from continuing to print money without restraint in the future, nor do they prevent Bitcoin from remaining the gold on the chain. Funds will eventually rush in, so holding onto spot prices in the long run is not afraid of short-term fluctuations. Last night, with the opening of the US stock market, the Big Dipper surged downwards again, reaching a low of 83800. However, the market rebounded all the way during the day, and now Coinbase's positive premium on Binance has returned. This also means that the panic buying led by retail investors is coming to an end, and the institutional fund king is back. Last night, the Big Dipper ETF received 850w of funds, and after a 3-day holiday, ETFs continued to flow in. There was no capital outflow for four consecutive trading days, which also indicates that institutional selling has come to an end. Last night, Pioneer Group announced that Opening up the entrance to ETFs such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, which is similar in size to BlackRock and manages $11 trillion, is a national level capital. This would have been a big boon a few months ago, but unfortunately the market is now declining; There was good news last night, some media said The Federal Reserve has just injected $13.5 billion into the US banking system through overnight repo. This is the second largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 epidemic, even exceeding the peak of the Internet foam period. For assets such as encryption that are strongly related to liquidity, if this news is true, it is indeed a significant positive news; And there's also some bad news, which is that MSTR is struggling to hold on. Although it was revealed that it bought 130 BTC last week, it established a $1.44 billion US stock dividend reserve fund last night, which seems to be going to save the stock price. This fund was originally intended to buy big cakes. Speaking of shanzhai, mon has returned to above the ICO price today, which can be considered as slightly saving face. However, based on the TVL and active user data on the chain, it is currently unable to sustain such a large FDV. As a new public chain, it still needs more radical innovation and the emergence of killer applications, otherwise it will not have long-lasting properties. Do you remember Blast a year ago? When this project first came out, there was no need for weak momentum in monad. Currently, there are still 150+ecological projects displayed on defillama, but the FDV is only 800 million now. Although monad is a parallel EVM, the cost of transplanting EVM ecological projects is indeed low, but the number of projects is now unable to sustain a large market value. The era of fat protocols has passed, and now funds only focus on fat applications, which is why Hype and Aster are so strong; Recently, several large trucks are preparing to raise funds through different forms of public fundraising. Aztec is auctioning on Uniswap and Coinlist, with a floor FDV of 350 million yuan. This is the privacy ZK L2 track, which can be referenced from ZK and Strk. Now, this FDV is also lower than institutional rounds, indicating that VC has already withdrawn at a discount. This is also the underlying protocol, and currently the market only recognizes applications; The other @ zama project will undergo sealed bidding in the Netherlands from January 12-15, with no FDV restrictions and pure market pricing. This project is also a $150 million financing truck, and both projects have the same goal of helping VC exit. We need to be cautious in this market situation; Then there is the new @ humidifi protocol on Jup, which is the largest dark pool AMM protocol on SOL. Launching on the largest AMM on SOL is considered endorsed, but the difference between the first two is that they are both low-level public chains. This is an application-oriented protocol, and I think we should focus on this. In addition, regardless of participating in any new projects, the current market must not hold on to dating for a long time. After 3 days, TGE must clear its position. The era of eating tens of times more at first level is over, and now it is just taking advantage of the popularity to earn a chicken leg. Holding on for a long time requires backing up.