如果我不懂|Dec 01, 2025 10:02
1. This bull market is led by ETH. DAT + ETF in the US stock market are the main spot players. BTC's price acts as the initial gear reflecting capital's confidence in ETH. However, MSTR's mNAV has seen further declines, so we have to seriously consider the possibility of a continued downtrend. Also, Tether and Circle have been downgraded in market ratings.
2. ETH's monthly close didn’t hold above 3060, but there’s still a rate cut in December that hasn’t been priced in yet. If ETH rises again, consider shorting around this level. The stop-loss is tight, and the ROI is high.
If it can stabilize above 3100, we can look at the macro perspective to see if there’s a trend reversal.
3. Adding to this, there’s been a lot of buzz in recent days about tightening domestic policies to further prevent liquidity from flowing out of the country via stablecoins. For large amounts, consider cashing out through licensed offline stores in Hong Kong or working with specific bulk long-term holders.
4. Bear market assets worth bottom-fishing: ASTER, HYPE, BNB, ONDO.
① BNB and ASTER are somewhat like the company shares of the biggest players in the market; as long as the industry exists, they won’t perform too badly. For ASTER, the airdrop might impact its year-end performance (the 12/5 burn doesn’t bring real buying volume, so the buyback mechanism isn’t being evaluated for now). After a deep bear market washout, the ROI could be quite high. BNB’s decline is very slow, and its monthly support is still far off.
② As for ONDO, the expectation is that if US stock IPOs can integrate with blockchain ICOs in the future (e.g., becoming a pathway for small-cap stocks), and if US stock DAT and ETFs continue their accumulation cycles, there’s potential for a new major bull market sector.
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