U.S. INFLATION EXPECTED TO RISE INTO 1H26: UBS UBS warns that U.S. inflation will continue rising into the first half of 2026, driven largely by tariffs. Headline inflation is already up 46–70bp since April post-pandemic lows, with core inflation up 24–30bp. UBS expects another 30–40bp increase before inflation peaks in Q2 2026, with core PCE reaching around 3.2%. The bank notes that tariffs remain an upside risk and advises caution on near-term data, like November CPI, due to distortions. Inflation is expected to stay elevated through late 2026, above the Fed’s 2% target into 2027, with core PCE projected at 2.9% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.(*Walter Bloomberg)