子棋(重生版)
子棋(重生版)|Nov 23, 2025 07:30
I’ve carefully analyzed the monthly-level adjustments of BTC over the past few years! If the bull market trend is still intact, the typical adjustment range is around 30-40%. If the trend reverses, the adjustment could exceed 50%. Currently, the maximum adjustment has reached 36%. At the same time, looking at the adjustment duration, three months is generally considered normal. As of now, only half of that time has passed. So, I think the next month or so will see major bottom consolidation, fluctuating between 75k-80k and 80k-88k. If there’s a rate cut in December, we could see a breakout; if not, it might drop below 80k for further consolidation. Regardless, whether rates are cut in December won’t determine the overall trend. After all, continuous rate cuts are inevitable—it’s just a matter of sooner or later. Next year’s rate cuts will likely be even more aggressive than this year’s, bringing stronger market effects. I believe 126k is definitely not the peak for this BTC cycle. Whether it’s as early as Q1 or as late as Q2, there will be promising market movements. From another perspective, even if you think we’re in a true bear market, based on past patterns, after three consecutive months of decline, there should be a decent rebound. You wouldn’t want to miss that, right?
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