灯塔说|Nov 21, 2025 14:26
Is 81000 the bottom?
If I were to speculate: this looks more like the first wave of acceleration in the downtrend, not the ultimate panic bottom.
The big players can totally use the 8.0w–8.2w range for consolidation, push it up to 8.5w–8.8w to clear out short positions and bait longs,
then decide whether to dump another leg down to 7.6w–7.8w
or go for a larger-scale consolidation.
To determine a reversal, at least the following conditions need to be met:
1. 4H no longer makes new lows;
2. A long lower wick with high volume appears at the bottom, and the buy-sell spread stops hitting new lows;
3. Open interest increases, but the price stops dropping (clear evidence of a shift in positions).
None of these have appeared yet, so the trend is still bearish, and any rebound is a better opportunity to short.
Tonight’s plan: opened a short position above 84000! Stop loss at 85.5K, targeting around 82K-80K.
If there’s a reversal, we can check if there’s a new low on the 4-hour chart.
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