Orange Evening Interpretation 11.21 The market has entered a phase where everyone is dead together. If a few days ago it was said that the big cake and the cryptocurrency market were too weak, it was because the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market were broken. The current situation is that the global risk asset system is about to collapse. Yesterday, not only the big cake fell, but also the US stock market, gold, big A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks did not run. The last time such a situation occurred was during the epidemic, when the entire market suddenly experienced a liquidity crisis Cash is more important than gold, which leads to all liquid assets being cashed out through liquidation. Coin Circle 312 happened at that time, and this round of systemic risk has reappeared. In fact, the expectation of interest rate cuts fell through, and the AI narrative has been questioned. Last night, Nvidia took the lead in smashing the market. After announcing strong financial reports, many funds began to take the opportunity to leave, resulting in a phenomenon of selling. In addition, the big bear Burry posted questioning the "ridiculous small" real demand for AI, criticizing the revolving financing model and stock dilution problems. Once capital re evaluates the value of AI, a chain reaction will occur, just like when ETH in the cryptocurrency market falls, the valuation of the entire public chain system will also decrease. The earthquake caused by AI is that all technology stocks return to pre liberation levels. A few weeks ago, Nvidia was still hitting 500 billion yuan, while Apple and Microsoft stood firm at 400 billion yuan. Now Nvidia is about to fall back to 400 billion yuan, and Microsoft has fallen to 350 billion yuan. Within a few weeks, each company will lose an average of more than 500 billion yuan. The overall risk market will definitely shrink more severely. Therefore, the current environment is in a downturn, and the cryptocurrency market is only experiencing a more miserable decline compared to others due to liquidity problems and more speculative funds. In fact, everyone is similar. If there is a collective rebound in the future, the cryptocurrency market will also be a pioneer. Then we will talk about the culprits behind the sharp decline in the cryptocurrency market, which are ETFs and DAT. Last night, the Big Cake ETF released $900 million, which is the absolute main capital. The beginning of this round of market trend was the Big Cake ETF passing, and then major institutions and professional investors rushed in with money to pull in the market. Now is the first bear market challenge faced by institutions in the cryptocurrency market. Capital flight cannot be stopped by small retail investors or one or two good news. Real market-oriented behavior should allow everyone to surge during the rising period and smash during the falling period. Whoever persists until the next bull market is the winner. The same thing is more obvious on DAT, because DAT's most valuable asset is its stock shell in the US stock market, but the US stock market has its advantages. It is stipulated that stock prices below $1 will be delisted after a certain period of time, and many dat In order to keep the shell, DAT will sell coins to repurchase stocks, which will form a cycle. The more coins are sold, the lower the price, and DAT's stock price will be difficult to hold on, which is the death spiral. Now several DAT companies for Bitcoin and ETH have started to smash. SQNS started hoarding Bitcoin in July, with an average purchase cost of 110000 yuan. Recently, it was revealed that they started selling coins at 100000 yuan. Fortunately, they ran early. Another ETH DAT FGNX, with a cost of over 4000 yuan, has only recently cut its meat and suffered huge losses. Now, besides MSTR, DAT company still has some profits, and almost all of them have been destroyed. BMNR, with a cost of over 4000 yuan, has not been sold. Now the total loss exceeds 4 billion US dollars. If the coin price is halved again, its funding gap will be equal to the gap during the FTX storm. It can only be said that this bull market in the cryptocurrency market has become a bull market. In ETF and DAT, the defeat also lies with these two brothers. Another issue is that the giant whales are now collectively fleeing, which is actually not a big deal. After all, many giant whales have very low holding costs, and they are often accustomed to cashing out at the end of each cycle in the near future. Otherwise, they would not be able to hold it for so long. According to the previous 4-year cycle theory, November and December are the peak prices, so it is very reasonable to habitually sell and ship coins. This has also led to the absence of ath prices at this time in this round. Another market panic is that several fraudsters of giant whales' coins have been caught, including Qian Zhimin's 200000 yuan, Chen Zhi's 12.70000 yuan, and KK Park She Zhijiang's 100000 yuan. These have amplified the market panic under pessimistic emotions. Now, Da Bing is being sold by various countries. The government's crazy surveillance has completely lost its privacy function. In the past, various hackers and network robberies would leave BTC addresses, but now leaving this is like seeking death. That's why The reason why ZEC suddenly became a supplement to the pancake is that the pancake is too dangerous. Then let's talk about shanzhai. To be honest, shanzhai's performance has been good these days. Although it has also fallen, at least it hasn't oversold. It can be seen that shanzhai's dog village and project party don't want to take advantage of the situation, think the price is too low, and don't want to cut meat. In fact, this is a good thing. At least let us know that as long as the market stabilizes, shanzhai will bottom out. We can't wait for the market to rebound before shanzhai remembers to fall. I still think there will be a wave of market trend in shanzhai in December. This time, I think we really need to seize it. There is basically no possibility of shanzhai rising again in CEX. It's not a general infrastructure project, or a self generating project. Everything else is just empty handed and there is not a single drop. The investment value, what we really need to focus on is still value coins, the ones that can withstand bull and bear cycles. Let's give up on the rest earlier. The recent level has also been very miserable. Last night, Bob directly cut through the market, and it was still listed on CB spot. Gaib and nil have both experienced market makers fleeing and smashing the market. Now you can't believe the promised liquidity of IDO. You can't even find the inexplicable selling pressure, and monad will end in one day. It's not fully invested yet, The lowest price on Hype has dropped to 0.03 billion FDV, which is 3 billion FDV, while the IDO of CB is 2.5 billion FDV. Many investors are panicking. PolyMarket predicts that there is only a 40% chance that Monad will receive funds exceeding 300 million, which means that if the fundraising is within 2x, if this project breaks down, CB's launchpad will not play anymore. In addition, many recently launched Binance spot projects have also broken down. I know that the financing price of ENSO was 1.25 at that time, and now it is 0.75. In short, even the most impressive projects now do not need diamond hands. They should be shipped out quickly while there is heat. When writing this article, the market has fallen to 8w2, and the entire network has exploded by 20%. Billion, don't use leverage in this market now. If you want to buy at the bottom, it's best to invest regularly. The real bottom hasn't been formed yet.