徐冲浪|Nov 21, 2025 07:16
Let me add something to avoid misunderstandings.
I think the current game logic in the market is very sound, but which faction do you believe in
1. The market is lack of liquidity. Trump wants to save it, but Trump is deeply involved in the Epstein incident. Some western media said that he gave Clinton a blow job. I can't understand how to interpret yourself
2. The Fed Watch Tool has shown that there is a probability of a 25bp rate cut of around 38% in December, and a probability of over 60% for staying put. This is a true feedback from the market, a fact, not an expectation, but FOMC has many reversal behaviors, such as Powell's meeting
3. I think AI has no foam. From a commercial point of view, the consumption of tokens must be growing in the long run. But the computing power still needs NVDA graphics cards, but in the middle, the market needs to fall to create more space. This is nothing. The logic is completely different from that of the Internet in 2000. At that time, it was to create ipos. Now, it is different. It is to buy from each other
4. Yesterday's non farm payroll and employment rate data were both bullish and bearish, relatively neutral
5. Yesterday, there were rumors in the market that NVDA had inflated its revenue. I don't think it's credible and unnecessary. The leader is already the leader, so why bother inflating? Lao Huang has already sold many shares before
All the points of the game are just how to go in December.
I only have a 60% position in the US stock market here, and I have already hedged it. Moreover, I have informed many people in advance to reduce their positions. This sharp decline was only seen before the clear interest rate hike.
Over the past 24 years, we have repeatedly felt that the US economy is in trouble and that people's lives are very difficult. We have been doing intraday short positions multiple times, and our success rates have been touching. Instead, we suspect that we have made profits by doing long positions in the middle.
The US stock market often experiences a situation where you feel there must be a sharp drop at a certain position, and then it rises even more after a period of time, but the process in between is different.
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