Hanzo ㊗️|11月 20, 2025 12:56
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT BTC RIGHT NOW:
let's cut through the noise
BTC sitting at $89k after dropping from $126k in Oct (-27% decline in six weeks)
Fear & Greed Index is at 11 - literally "extreme fear" zone
all of 2025's gains? GONE, but this is not the end
THE INSTITUTIONAL PARADOX:
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF just saw its largest single outflow since launch - 523 million in one day.
over four weeks, they've bled 2.19B. That's institutional money hitting the exit.
yet somehow, 30% of all Bitcoin in circulation is now sitting in institutional vaults. ETFs pulled in $6Bin May alone.
so what gives? are institutions buying or selling?
both the old money is rotating out while new money rotates in
classic basis trade unwind mixed with profit-taking, the smart money isn't abandoning ship - they're repositioning
THE HALVING MATH:
April 2024 halving, history says peaks come 12-18 months later
guess where are we now? right in that window.
every cycle, people think "this time it's different." It never is.
WHAT WHALES ARE SAYING?
Michael Saylor is calling for $150k by year-end, 1M in 4-8 years.
Cathie Wood quietly lowered her 2030 target from 1.5M to 1.2M, admitting stablecoins are eating Bitcoin's lunch in emerging markets.
Standard Chartered is penciling in $300k for 2026.
nobody really knows. but they're all still playing.
now the most interesting part:
THE TECHNICAL REALITY:
$90k was the line. we broke it, barely held, now we're dancing around it
> Below us: support at $83k-$84k.
> Below that? The 2024 consolidation zone around $70k-$75k.
> Above us: resistance at $99k, then $105k, then $113k before we can talk about new highs.
THE SETUP:
this looks like a shakeout. Not the bottom, but close.
the kind of move that flushes out leverage and lets the big players reload at better prices
If $90k holds through year-end, we probably grind back to $105k-$120k, that's the "healthy correction" scenario
If we lose $90k convincingly, we're going to $75k-$85k. Fast.
that's the "time to actually buy" scenario that most people will be too scared to play
THE LONG GAME:
SEC just approved 90+ Bitcoin ETF applications
> institutions own a third of supply
> the halving is fresh
> regulatory clarity is improving
> the macro trend is up and to the right
but short-term? we're in the pain zone.
could easily see another 10-20% down before this is over
TL;DR
Bitcoin has never had better fundamentals, yet the price action looks terrible
that's usually when the real money gets made, or lost, depending on your timing
we're probably 6-18 months from $150k-$200k, but first, we might have to revisit $75k
Position accordingly...(Hanzo ㊗️)
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