Let me try to answer these five questions about VV beauties Before speaking, let's talk about the current situation first Nvidia's financial report exceeded expectations this morning, which boosted AI's technology shares and slightly lowered the encryption. AI's foam has not yet burst, and it is still rising after hours. Anyway, emotional capital is OK. Then there will be the release of labor force data for September tonight. To be honest, this data is a bit lagging behind and has little effect. At most, it only boosts sentiment and has little effect on the December interest rate cut. Then there are the meeting minutes. Lao Bao said he is not planning to cut interest rates in December. Although there are still internal differences, as of now, CME predicts that the probability of a rate cut in December is only 32.8%. But it has been decided to stop reducing the balance sheet on December 1st. You can understand it as having to withdraw from this balance sheet before, but now stop withdrawing. It can be considered as' releasing water '. It is also a positive factor in liquidity, and if you want to understand that this is equivalent to a rate cut, it is not impossible. Speaking of the release of liquidity from the US Treasury Department's account balance [TGA], it has been underway since the 17th US time and needs to be gradually released. It should also be possible to release some liquidity by December. As shown in the picture, there is currently no update until the 18th. Pay attention to this balance later That is to say, apart from the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut mentioned above, there is a high probability that other events will occur. Alright, back to the issue of VV beauties 1. Yes, but this bearish trend (there is still a 32.8% chance of a 12 month interest rate cut) has been anticipated, but there is still a game in the market. If we hope to cut interest rates in December, we need to look at the labor and inflation data for November, which will be released in the first and second weeks of December, respectively. But the data for October may not be visible. (To be honest, if it weren't for the emotional boost from Nvidia's financial report, the minutes of the early morning meeting would probably have increased market concerns.) 2. After reading my answer to the first question, I should know the answer to the second question. Not yet fully priced in, From the perspective of K-line trends, this level of downward oscillation often releases a sense of panic again before it is considered complete. In terms of the December interest rate cut game, the market still has a sense of luck (Note that I am referring to encryption, BTC) Just because TGA is released and the contraction of the body is stopped, perhaps the emotions will not be very panicked at that time. 3. I feel that VV beauty has something else to refer to in this question. But I personally think that the current public opinion is in addition to the AI foam Expectations of interest rate cuts and liquidity. (Welcome friends to add) 4. The second question has already been answered. If BTC falls again, 82-85 will be support, but it depends on how much emotional panic there is 5. Has the signal of trend reversal arrived? How do you think about this issue It means that BTC has reversed its previous downward trend, but it hasn't arrived yet. We need new speculation and expectations of interest rate cuts, whether it's in December or January. Attention ⚠️ The December interest rate meeting is scheduled for the early morning of December 11th, and the January interest rate meeting is scheduled for around January 28th. PS： If there is speculation about the expected interest rate cut in December, the sentiment can be boosted. If there is no interest rate cut in December, relying on the cessation of balance sheet tightening and TGA release, where can this drive prices go? Plus, there will be Christmas, New Year, and holidays later on. The data for December will not be released until January. Of course, this is still a long time ago. Walking and watching, I finished answering.