The Fed is extremely data-dependent. At the December meeting, they will face: 1. No unemployment rate data for October. 2. No complete non-farm payroll report for November (unless a miracle happens and it’s released during the meeting, but even then, there won’t be enough time for forward guidance). 3. Inflation data (CPI) disrupted by the shutdown, with some October data potentially lost forever. In such high uncertainty, the central bank’s instinct is usually to 'hold steady' to avoid overreacting when the road ahead is unclear.