Trump said that he would send US $2000 customs dividend check to Americans. Why did he bring it up at this time? Is it reliable? Trump announced this policy proposal in a tweet on the morning of the 9th of last Sunday, which caused heated discussion. Then on Wednesday, Finance Minister Besant said in an interview that the total talk was about providing a tax rebate of $2000 for low-income families. Then everyone thought that Trump's proposal was like this. But Carolyn Levitt, the White House press secretary, said a few days ago that President Trump was still "firmly" committed to issuing every American a bonus check of $2000, which would come from tariff revenue. The president has made it clear that he hopes to make this matter happen. Therefore, his economic advisory team is studying feasible paths. ”It seems that Trump is very insistent on this policy proposal. How many points can we discuss about this tariff and bonus check 1. Motivation and intention of Trump to propose tariff dividend check It should be noted that when Trump first proposed that this is a tariff dividend check, it means that if a check is to be issued in the future, the money should come from tariff income. However, the biggest risk faced by Trump's tariff policy at present is the ruling of the United States Supreme Court. If the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was illegal, although the White House also has new legal basis to support the implementation of tariff policy, to be honest, it is not as broad as the scope of authority granted by the 1972 International Emergency Economic Status Act, which will also cause confusion. From this, we can see the motivation and intention of Trump to propose the tariff dividend check: 1) The motive is to pressure the Supreme Court of the United States. Trump wants to use the tariff income to pay the people. If the Supreme Court decides to break the law, it will inevitably bring huge public pressure on itself. Isn't it not in a disguised way to be against the interests of ordinary Americans. The essence is to pressure the Supreme Court with the will of the people; 2) The intention is that in order to hold the mid-term elections at the end of November next year, and for the mid-term elections in 26 years, the Republican Party can still firmly control both houses of Congress, Trump must plan ahead. Sending bonus checks, which is a disguised form of bribery, is a trump card against the Democratic Party. Of course, there is no legal problem at all, and the Democratic Party has also been involved in disguised bribery before this. 2. Does the US Treasury have the ability to issue tariff dividend checks If the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was legal under the pressure of public opinion, in fact, tariff revenue could cover the dividend check. Firstly, even if a tariff dividend check is to be issued, it should not be aimed at everyone. During the 20 year epidemic period and the two times of epidemic period relief checks authorized by Trump Ren were issued to individuals with an annual income of up to 75000 US dollars and couples with an annual income of up to 150000 US dollars. High income people who exceeded this income line could receive a small amount of money. This time, some experts in the United States believe that the distribution scope is for groups with an annual income of less than $100000. Again, here is Erica York, an expert from the Tax Foundation https://((x.com))/ericadyork/status/1987519882351841674? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A said that if Trump defined the distribution range of bonus checks as the group with an annual income of $100000 or less, the policy would cover about 150 million Americans, with a total of about $300 billion in bonus payments. Finally, according to the latest data from the US Treasury Department, as of September 30th, the federal government has generated $195 billion in tariff related revenues. Previously, the Ministry of Finance also estimated that a total of $300 billion in tariff revenue could be achieved in 25 years. It seems that as long as tariffs can be collected, the government has the ability to issue tariff dividend checks to low - and middle-income groups. 3. If everything goes smoothly, when will it be distributed? Normally, the President's proposal to send money to the public is just a preliminary idea. A bill still needs to be proposed by a member of parliament, passed by both houses of Congress and signed by the president. Then it is up to the Ministry of Finance or the National Taxation Bureau to carry out the helicopter money transfer, which requires congressional approval. Trump also proposed a similar idea in August, when Josh Hawley, a Republican senator from Missouri, proposed the 2025 American Workers' Rebate Act, but there was no following. Personally, the US government has just ended its shutdown and has temporarily returned to normal. Previously, here was https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/198887397518858233? The key to whether the government can continue to operate after January 30th next year is the result of the vote game between the two parties on the ACA subsidy extension bill in mid December. If it fails, it will trigger a new negotiation deadlock, which in turn will affect the comprehensive budget negotiations at the end of January next year. So it is estimated that the focus of Congress in the next two months will still be on the extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. Only when the two parties can fully reach an agreement in this regard and the government can continue to operate after January 30, 26, will some lawmakers propose a bill to issue tariff dividend checks. And it also depends on the ruling of the Supreme Court on tariff issues. (Some say the Supreme Court will issue a ruling in December) If the above two issues are successfully resolved (the government shutdown issue is finally resolved, and the Supreme Court rules that tariffs are legal), it is estimated that some Republican lawmakers will wait until the second half of the first quarter of next year to propose a dividend bill. The two parties will play a game again, and it is estimated that the tariff dividend bill will be passed until the second quarter of next year, but it happens to be before the midterm elections. Sending money to the public within one or two quarters before the midterm elections has the best campaign effect. Of course, the above is the most smooth situation. The future ruling of the Supreme Court and the government's suspension game are the key factors that directly affect whether Trump's $2000 tariff dividend check can become a reality. The ruling of the Supreme Court affects whether there is money to send checks, and the suspension of the game affects when money will be sent. This article is sponsored by the meme trading tool http://(xxyy. io) | Fast trading, versatile features, and can be used to monitor on chain wallets @useXXYYio