qinbafrank|11月 15, 2025 08:31
The panic in the US stock market is similar to that in the cryptocurrency market. From the market trend, the adjustment of the US stock market has been significantly stronger in the past two weeks, especially last night when the US stock market opened significantly lower and could even rebound (the Nasdaq opened lower by -1.8%, rose as high as+0.85% during trading, and closed with+0.13%, the amplitude is actually not small), and the cryptocurrency market has not had a strong rebound force despite its continuous decline. But when I checked the panic and greed indices of the two markets, I found that they were both in the extreme panic zone.
The CNN Panic Greed Index is an indicator that describes the emotional state of the US stock market (Figure 1), with the latest value being 18 in the extreme panic zone. The impact of the pullback of the carry trade caused by the US recession and Japan's interest rate hike on August 5, 2024, and the panic caused by the mid to ten-year US Treasury yield exceeding 5% in October 2023
And the impact of the small and medium-sized bank crisis triggered by the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank in early March 2023, with the panic and greed index at the same level. Only slightly better than the market panic of the day before Trump turned to the last moment of the tariff war on April 8 this year (the panic greed index on April 8 was 2.9, the lowest in history)
Looking at the Coin Market Panic Greed Index (Figure 2) again, it is basically at a historical low in the past three years, and you will find that the time when the coin market experienced extreme panic was almost the same as that of the US stock market, except that the duration of extreme panic in the coin market was longer than that of the US stock market. The US stock market generally has a very short period of extreme panic, which is also in line with my previous statement at the beginning of the year. https://((((x.com)))/qinbank/status/1898261242068058542? The characteristics of the US stock market discussed by s=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A are: when rising, the momentum is like a rainbow, when falling, it is not dragging its feet, and it quickly moves down. Can you see the previous tweet https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/189527083215614924? The K-line trends of various adjustment periods in the US stock market over the past 20 years, as sorted out in s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A, are basically rapid downturns, and the bottom of the US stock market is basically a V-shaped reversal. After reaching the bottom, there is no hesitation to rebound and rarely retrace. Simply put, the bottom of the US stock market adjustment is usually a V-shaped reversal, with very little time for bottoming out.
We need to think about it here. What stage has the US stock market adjusted in the past two weeks and the cryptocurrency market adjusted in the past month? I personally think that at least the emotional killing is almost over. Last week, https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/198648738678825? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A talked about that the essence of this wave of US stock adjustment is the adjustment to kill the valuation and squeeze the foam. It is not a crash type big drop, almost a small level adjustment. Especially since the US stock market is already in a state of extreme panic, is it the same as in August 2024, October 2023, and early March 2023 when it was almost in place, or is it like in early April 2025 when there is still room for emotional decline? I personally think it's the former. The current macro crisis process should be far inferior to early April, when many people believed that not only the US stock market was doomed, but also the US was going to be doomed. The degree of macro crisis is obviously much smaller now than in early April, of course, this is subjective.
As we discussed yesterday afternoon, https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/1989181903652716616? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, The market is in a panic, but the road ahead is not lifeless and lifeless, and many new opportunities and trends are also brewing. Don't be swept up by pessimistic emotions portrayed by the outside world, start from a rational and objective perspective, especially at this time.
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