Objectively, all of the bullish analysis on Bitcoin that I've shared since mid-October has been incorrect. I followed the same bull market setups, indicators, & signals that have worked over and over again this cycle (and in past cycles). But they just didn't work. Honestly, that's weighing on me. Sometimes, sound analysis fails. No indicator is perfect. No setup is perfect. No signal is perfect. That imperfection is risk, by definition. Being wrong isn't weighing on me because of the fact that I was wrong, but what it actually means. By definition, bullish setups work in bull markets. So when they fail, the probability of being in a bull market declines. If bullish setups keep failing, consistently, that's worrisome. As an objective analyst, I have to recognize that... Even if I'm hopeful that they'll start working again, or that the market gods give me a middle finger, invalidate the setups, and then experience a face-ripping rally. I focus on the charts. Not some dogmatic, chest-pounding, circle jerk. So, at the risk of being wrong once again, I'm still bullish today (despite recent deteriorations) because my primary bull vs. bear market signal hasn't flashed yet. That line in the sand is key. If you've been paying attention, you know what it is. Lock in, embrace nuance, and good luck. Also, gm.(Caleb Franzen)