《Is Altcoin Season Really Here?》 Woke up early and checked my phone—saw talk about altcoin season. So, is it really altcoin season? Or just the final peak hype? Looking back at history: Both 2017 and 2021 had their “altcoin frenzy,” which mostly happened near the end/main peak of the bull run. For example, after BTC peaked in December 2017, the total market cap didn’t peak until January 2018. “Altcoin catch-up” delayed the finale (classic “double top” effect). The current market is swinging between three typical paths: 1. Short-lived theme rotations (1–2 weeks): Driven by leverage and thin liquidity, followed by overheated funding rates/premiums → pullback. 2. Structural mini bull run (1–3 months): Stablecoin inflows, on-chain activity, and new narratives driving sustained strength in mid-tier assets. 3. Final peak hype before distribution: Leaders weaken, sentiment diverges, altcoins thrive on “rotation + short squeezes,” but lack real net inflows of capital. So, what’s the current market like? - Almost no stablecoin inflows. - ETH/BTC showing slight upward movement but hasn’t broken out. - Still dominated by derivatives, with spot playing a secondary role. - Poor on-chain activity. What’s different this time is that most altcoins are currently at the bottom of their cycles. Even major tokens like UNI are sitting at levels lower than previous bear markets. This round of inflows is mainly driven by ETFs and regulated off-market funds → naturally prioritizing BTC → ETH, with very little flowing directly into governance tokens or long-tail assets. The result: strong beta assets, weak long-tail assets. This structure is rigid and won’t change easily in the short term. At this moment, I lean toward the tail-end rotation of long-tail assets. If you don’t care about bull or bear markets, go ahead and sprint on the right side. If you do care about bull or bear markets, this is a question you can’t ignore. I don’t have predictive abilities, only judgment based on the market’s tendencies. Stay open-minded—the market is always right.