Orange Evening Interpretation 11.6 The market has finally experienced a decent rebound, with the big pie returning to above 10w. However, this does not mean that the risk has been relieved, because yesterday it was a solid drop below 10w, rather than receiving support above 10w. Therefore, this rebound is not so stable, and the market still has the possibility of further exploration. I think we should remain cautious in short-term long positions, but for long-term holdings, now is indeed a good time to invest. Last night, a lot of things happened in America. First, the employment data of small non farm adp exceeded expectations, which brought a lot of confidence to the market. Because of the government's suspension, the big non farm adp that was supposed to be released on Friday was postponed, so traders actually focused on adp, which is regarded as the alternative data of this month. Many small partners were really wondering whether the non farm adp data was good or not, because the non farm association made the interest rate cut expectations fall in December, which was actually the law of last year, and now it is not suitable. This market decline was actually the decline of Trump's support rate, the decline of government control, so everything rose because of Trump. The assets have been recalled, while adp Good employment data means that Trump has done well since taking office, which is conducive to Trump winning the next mid-term elections, so it has a good effect, which is the focus of the current market; In addition, the Republican Party in New York, Virginia and New Jersey all lost elections yesterday, which was also the main reason for the serious illness to fall below 10 weeks. But Trump's assessment of the election last night was that the main reason was that the government closed down, which was detrimental to the image of the Republican Party, and that he did not appear on the ballot, leading to the failure of the core magas. In addition, these three districts were originally Democratic Party vote holders, so the failure was not a big deal. This reply was also a slight boost to morale, because the expected government would inevitably open up, and now it is mainly stuck in the Democratic Party's refusal to support the short-term funding bill, and There are differences among Republican senators on canceling the "lengthy proceedings", so Trump is now pressing to cancel the lengthy proceedings. However, Trump also indicated that he would not compromise with the Democratic Party, so the government may be closed for a longer time, but the longer the matter lasts, the more favorable it will be when the door is opened, so it can be regarded as a stretch of expectations. In terms of funds, ETF continued to outflow funds last night, with 137 million outflow from big cakes and 118 million outflow from ETH. Although the outflow has decreased compared with the previous days, it can be seen that institutional funds still haven't turned. Then, according to the statistics of some institutions, there was a wave of selling of Bitcoin by long-term holders and giant whales this month, which sold for 45 billion dollars in October, and this selling may last until next spring. I don't think it is a bad thing about this. Now we judge the fair value of BTC mainly by referring to the cost of holding coins. This change of hands will only make the cost of holding coins higher, which is commonly known as the foam. The coins of giant whales will be sold out sooner or later, and sold out sooner or later. The crisis was lifted earlier, BTC has gone through a 16 year cycle, and there are still too many low-priced chips available today. When these chips are forced to be traded, the pie will definitely fly to the sky, and of course, there will be ups and downs in this process. So let me ask everyone to extend the cycle and you will find that BTC really keeps rising. Finally, with the rebound of the market, the copycat market continues to diverge. The previous privacy and zk market are still strong today. Zec is almost an "ath" every day, and today the maximum is 523. Now the market funds directly regard it as a "big cake" to fry. NAVAL's slogan is really awesome. The bottom has come up for 10x, and the whole track has been brought up. Dash, rail, xvg and even torn have taken off. It can be said that because Zec has entered the bull market, we can see that the current market money is still available, but there is no good narrative to carry it; There is also the zk sector that V God has shouted about. This track can be considered a type of privacy, but more projects use zk technology, such as mina $zk tlos zkc zkj and so on. Many of these projects were already considered dead a week ago, such as mina at around 0.7 dollars at the beginning of this year. The lowest point of 1011 fell to 0.034, below 20x, and the trading volume almost disappeared. Now it has started to go strong because of zk, but I also do not recommend following the example of mina to find old coins. This probability is too low, and it is necessary to hit the hot track, have high control of the project side, and have sufficient capital reserves, otherwise there is no reason to pull. Most of the old knockoffs are still garbage; Then the hottest knockoff sector at the moment must still have the parent coins of Binance Shuangsheng, the washing of the Giggle textbook, and a 5x pull-out at the bottom. The market looks impressive, but the whole network is criticizing it, and the water is too deep. At the same time, Binance Life Palu Hakimi and others have been brought up. It has to be said that the only remaining traffic in the circle is now at Shuangsheng. Then the alpha/contract sector has released demonic coins again. Soon has the feeling of integrating COAI's legacy, with a 30x pull-out at the bottom and an FDV of 1.37 billion. In short, this type of trend is very crazy and suitable for short-term risks, but don't hold it for the long term. Let's see how COAI will ultimately succeed. If it falls from 20 to 1 and myx falls from 18 to 2, we can only speculate.