qinbafrank|Nov 06, 2025 07:32
Looking at the booming prediction market from Hood's earnings report, the executives mentioned prediction markets multiple times during the earnings call. In Q3, the prediction market business contributed $25 million in revenue to Robinhood. Although it still accounts for a small portion overall, the growth rate is astonishing. @vladtenev revealed that the cumulative event contract trading volume in its prediction market has surpassed 4 billion contracts, with over 2 billion contributed in Q3 alone. He even boldly stated, 'This is just the beginning.'
Robinhood has rapidly expanded the types of tradable events from the initial focus on sports and finance to now include politics, entertainment, and technology. Users can now predict the year-end level of the S&P 500 index, who will be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year, which movie will receive an Oscar nomination, or even the number of SpaceX launches in a year. Essentially, it’s transforming real-world events into tradable financial products, truly giving off a vibe of 'everything is tradable.'
Some investment banks are predicting that October trading volumes for Kalshi and Polymarket have nearly doubled. Robinhood's feature allowing users to buy and sell contracts on 'yes' or 'no' outcomes of future events is also achieved through collaboration with Kalshi.
The prediction market is undoubtedly a rapidly exploding sector.
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