律动BlockBeats|Nov 04, 2025 08:30
**[HTX DeepThink: The Fed Ends Quantitative Tightening, Signals Liquidity Release, Bitcoin Seeks Momentum Amid Consolidation]**
BlockBeats News, November 4 – HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) published an analysis stating that the Federal Reserve has announced it will stop reducing its balance sheet on December 1 and lower the policy interest rate to 3.75%–4.0%. This marks the end of a three-year quantitative tightening (QT) cycle. Powell indicated that bank reserves are approaching the "ample" lower limit, and the cessation of balance sheet reduction aims to avoid further draining market liquidity.
Chloe pointed out that this policy shift stems from tightening in three major liquidity indicators within the financial system: the Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ON RRP) balance has dropped from a peak of $2.6 trillion to near zero; the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance remains around $983.9 billion; and bank reserves are approximately $3.3 trillion, nearing levels seen during the liquidity crunch of 2019. This is seen as a "liquidity turning point signal" released by the Federal Reserve to mitigate financial risks.
On the macroeconomic level, the 10-year TIPS real yield has fallen to around 1.77%, and the U.S. Dollar Index hovers near 99.8. Both the decline in real interest rates and the weakening dollar provide support for risk assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's upward momentum since August has entered a consolidation phase, with options open interest reaching a record high of $63 billion, primarily concentrated on the Deribit platform. Chloe believes that the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction indicates a rebound in marginal capital supply. If liquidity easing continues and ETF inflows strengthen, it could provide momentum for Bitcoin to resume its upward trend. However, short-term price movements will still depend on subsequent macroeconomic data, such as CPI and employment figures, as well as the pace of rate cuts at the December FOMC meeting.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink