比特傻|Nov 04, 2025 07:07
《Is the Bear Market Here?》
Current market situation:
Bitmine's ETH is at 12.3 billion, while its market cap is 12.2 billion—it's already trading at a discount.
MSTR's market cap is 75.9 billion, BTC's market cap is 68.7 billion, mNAV = 1.1.
Future financing and buying for Bitmine and MSTR will become more difficult.
Since October, BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs have shown an outflow trend.
Both ETFs and DAT are starting to weaken, increasing the risk of a bear market in the market.
Looking at it now, the bear market trend is confirmed.
In the short term, there’s no sign of a stronger reversal force.
I’ve revised my previous view of bullish consolidation.
Now I’m expecting consolidation with a downward trend.
To be more specific:
I’ve already cleared out altcoins and meme coins earlier.
Now it’s time to sell BTC.
I often make wrong judgments, and I also believe no one can predict bull or bear markets.
Therefore, in terms of operations, it’s important to leave room for flexibility.
Stay open-minded—if the market deviates from expectations, adjust your strategy.
I think all retail investor indicators will completely fail on this path; DAT and ETFs are the main contradictions.
Any analysis based on retail indicators can be ignored—I hope I’m right.
P.S. Since October, I’ve reminded my group members to clear their positions at least 10 times.
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