大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only
大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only|11月 03, 2025 16:19
Summary in one sentence: The current BTC volatility risk premium is still slightly negative, indicating that the market's expectations for future volatility remain relatively mild. Option sellers have not received significant risk compensation, and overall volatility sentiment is neutral to slightly low. ——————— From late October to early November, VRP was below 0 most of the time (between -6% and 0%). This indicates that during this period, implied volatility < realized volatility. The market's option prices (IV) underestimated the actual market volatility (RV). In recent days (early November), VRP has returned to near 0 and slightly negative, meaning: → Market volatility sentiment is becoming balanced, and option pricing is closer to actual volatility. ——————— A quick rebound to positive → The market is repricing risk, which usually signals increased concerns about future volatility (possibly driven by events or expectations). Currently near zero and slightly negative → The market is temporarily calm but may be in a phase where "volatility is about to be repriced.
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