The US housing market is frozen: Only 28 out of every 1,000 homes, or 2.8%, changed hands in the first 9 months of 2025, the least in at least 30 years. The turnover rate has declined -38% since the 2021 peak, when 44 out of every 1,000 homes were sold. By comparison, the rate stood at 40 per 1,000, or 44% higher, in 2019 before the 2020 pandemic. The market is frozen due to a rate lock-in effect, where over 70% of homeowners hold mortgages with rates below 5%. These owners refuse to sell into a 6%+ rate environment, while elevated home prices and borrowing costs have pushed potential buyers to the sidelines. The housing market has stalled.(The Kobeissi Letter)