BTC bullish news continues, but is US market capital fleeing? Since October 26, 2025, the spot premium rate of Coinbase BTC vs Binance BTC has started to show a continuous decline, and as of now, it remains in a negative premium state. It even hit the lowest negative premium rate since April of this year, which undoubtedly indicates that the capital outflow from the US market is significantly greater than that of the Asian market—or perhaps US market capital is continuously selling off BTC. We know that in recent years, the spot premium rate of Coinbase BTC vs Binance BTC has often been an indicator of the main market trend. This is because, in recent years, the pricing power of US market capital has been significantly greater than that of Asian market capital. However, during periods of stock market optimism, macroeconomic improvement, and even policy shifts for the better, BTC’s price has failed to rise significantly as the market expected, nor has it shown price correlation or rotation with assets like US stocks or gold. Historically, October has rarely seen negative growth in BTC prices, but this year is an exception. Earlier, I conducted a detailed technical analysis. From the perspective of price action, we don’t yet know the specific logic behind BTC’s independent weakness, but we did capture the likelihood that BTC would struggle to see a significant rally. Now, coming back to the issue of the premium rate: if we refer to historical periods of sustained BTC rallies or preparation phases, in most cases, these are accompanied by a significant increase in the premium rate. If the premium rate continues to decline or drops sharply, it is usually a signal of sustained BTC decline or an impending major drop. Will this time be the same? Let’s wait and see—the final outcome of Asian market capital vs US market capital. As for technical analysis, I won’t elaborate further since I’ve discussed it in previous posts. To put it simply, the technicals are already at a peak stage. The only question is whether there will be a new ATH (All-Time High). It could happen, or it might not. My personal conclusion is that the probability of a new ATH is decreasing, but my trading strategy is fully prepared for all scenarios. END.