Yin Ge's in-depth market observation Probability of individual investors making money in various markets 1. Stock market (spot stocks) Data: Multiple studies in China and the United States have shown that retail investors make around 20% -25% of long-term profits in the stock market. China's A-share market: Research by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that over 70% of individual investors suffer long-term losses, about 20% make profits, and 5% -10% are big winners. US stock market: Due to the more mature market and long-term index gains, people who buy ETF tools make more money, but individual investors who actively trade still suffer losses. ✅ Reasonable estimation: Out of 100 people, 20 people make money, 5 people earn a relatively large amount, and the rest mostly underperform the market in the long run. 2. Futures market Data: Futures with high leverage may have high short-term profits, but the long-term survival rate is extremely low. The China Futures Market Association once had data that over 80% of individual futures accounts incurred losses within one year; Less than 10% can achieve stable profitability. Foreign research (CFTC, NFA): Retail futures traders who can sustain long-term profits should not exceed 5% -10%. ✅ Reasonable estimation: Out of 100 people, 2-5 people make money, of which 1-2 people can remain stable, while the majority suffer losses or even sell out. 3. Cryptocurrency (spot+contract) Data: Cryptocurrencies have high volatility, severe information asymmetry, and most transactions are zero sum games. Data from multiple exchanges (Binance, OKX) shows that over 90% of contract players suffer long-term losses; Only those who hold Bitcoin and Ethereum in the spot market for a long time have the opportunity to make money. Statistics show that the majority of retail investors chase after high prices and kill low ones, while project developers, exchanges, and early investors make the vast majority of profits. ✅ Reasonable estimation: If we only look at the contract: out of 100 people, only 1 person may make long-term profits. If including long-term holdings of mainstream currencies in spot markets: out of 100 people, 5 can make money, but the vast majority cannot make the trend money. comprehensive comparison Stocks (spot): 20 people make money (relatively "friendly"). Futures: 2-5 people make money (expert game, strong always strong). Cryptocurrency: 1-5 people make money (project team+a very small number of people who can keep up with the trend in the long run).