
BITWU.ETH 🔆|Sep 22, 2025 07:27
Today, the market plummeted without any warning and entered a generally pessimistic mood. Many people have fallen into the dead end of whether it is a trend reversal or a pullback——
Let's start with the conclusion: no one can accurately answer whether this is a correction or a turning point in the trend. Asking me is useless. I'm not a god, and I don't know!
As I wrote a few days ago, even top institutions like Bridgewater and Renaissance are betting on probability, not from a god's perspective.
What we can do is to rephrase this question:
If this is a callback, can I survive and even add some positions?
If this is a reversal, can I avoid being dragged to death?
The biggest problem for retail investors is one thing: they either have to go all in or run all out, without any sustainable operating space.
Actually, it's completely unnecessary. It's important to distinguish between the core warehouse and the maneuvering warehouse——
one ⃣ Core position: This is your bottom position and a chip that can cross cycles.
Don't easily clear everything, the true trend reversal often needs to wait for the macro logic to break, liquidity to tighten, and continuous outflow of funds to be confirmed, rather than a one-day or two-day sharp decline.
If the drop is very uncomfortable, you can ask yourself:
If BTC falls another 20% from now on, can you still sleep?
If not, then your position is too heavy and needs to be reduced.
If you can accept it, then take it and don't scare yourself.
Set the maximum drawdown you can accept, and if it exceeds this line, decisively shrink. It's better to make less profit than nothing at all.
two ⃣ Mobile compartment: Be sure to leave enough space for U, which can both relieve emotions and hold bullets.
If you are particularly anxious, you may consider pocketing some profits now. In an uncertain environment, non leading knockoffs are given priority in reducing inventory, so don't linger.
Remember, true trends are only clear in the past tense.
The future is always vague, but only those who can survive are qualified to see the future and talk about the next bull market!
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