常为希 🔸🚢
常为希 🔸🚢|Sep 18, 2025 15:02
In the field of quantification: a model of deep integration of AI and Crypto, Numerai (NMR) is a self-made entrepreneurial project that started from scratch. Through pure data-driven model construction, it stands out concisely and efficiently, ultimately attracting the favor of large funds. The project is essentially a decentralized hedge fund that uses machine learning models submitted by global data scientists to predict the stock market, emphasizing the "simplicity of the road" - everything speaks to market performance and data, avoiding subjective intervention. Valuation perspective optimization: Drawing on the relative valuation of stablecoin TVL, the current market value of NMR is only about 130-140 million US dollars (still less than 200 million after the market is closed), far below its actual value potential. Perhaps we can learn from the TVL valuation logic of stablecoins such as USDT or USDC: the market value of stablecoins is often highly correlated with the size of their anchored assets, and the larger the TVL, the higher the ecological value. As the core token of the Numerai ecosystem, NMR's value should be linked to the asset size (AUM) managed by the platform. At present, Numerai has achieved an AUM of approximately $450 million, and with JP Morgan's commitment to inject $500 million in batches in August 2025, the total AUM is close to $950 million, with a potential scale easily exceeding $1 billion. This is equivalent to an 'AI driven stablecoin' - the value locked in model staking and rewards directly reflects the vitality of the ecosystem. If roughly estimated based on the ratio of stablecoin TVL/market value (usually 1:1 or higher), the reasonable market value of NMR should be at least in the range of $500 million to $1 billion. The current valuation is significantly undervalued, providing huge upside potential. Reward mechanism: Real money motivates geeks, market performance determines victory or defeat Numerai adopts a geek culture of "rewarding work with money": if you believe your model is excellent, use NMR to stake it. Every week, dynamic adjustments are made based on the model's performance in the real market - excellent performance can receive up to 25% inflation rewards (issued in NMR form), while poor performance will face a 25% deflation penalty (destruction of partial collateral). This is not empty talk, but a weekly real market test, where the awesome model directly "talks with money". As of now, over 4000 models have been pledged, with a total NMR reward value of over 40 million US dollars paid to data scientists, truly demonstrating the monetization of AI model capabilities. The core concept of Numerai is to integrate diverse machine learning models built by the world's best data scientists into a 'Meta Model', which is the best solution for predicting the stock market. Numerai does not rely on a single genius, but aggregates the wisdom of thousands of models through crowdsourcing and encryption mechanisms to avoid deviation and over fitting of a single model. This system has been proven effective and has attracted top endorsements such as Union Square Ventures, co-founder of Renaissance Technologies, and co-founder of Coinbase. The NMR token itself is a fixed supply token, with a total limit strictly locked at 11 million, and even the Numerai team cannot issue additional tokens (guaranteed by smart contracts). The current circulating supply is about 7.58 million pieces, with a total supply of about 10.66 million pieces. Numerai uses NMR in the vault to pay for rewards and support the ecosystem of data scientists, but the vault reserves are about to run out - currently there are about 3 million NMR remaining (after executing a $1 million NMR repurchase in July 2025, about 110000 NMR will be repurchased to further enhance scarcity). Once the treasury is depleted, it will be impossible to maintain the pledge and expenditure mechanism, which is crucial for Numerai's hedge funds. To address this issue, Numerai has launched a strategic buyback aimed at stabilizing the token economy and enhancing long-term value. This also highlights the scarcity and urgency of NMR: fixed supply+continuous consumption=potential price catalyst. The uniqueness of Numerai lies in its integration of the crypto economy with traditional finance, and it may further expand to Crypto and Signals platforms in the future. Numerai has proven that you can integrate thousands of independent ideas to solve the most challenging problems in the financial field. But this integration relies on NMR.
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