BARCLAYS: U.S. ECONOMY STALLING, 50% RECESSION RISK IN TWO YEARS Barclays says the U.S. economy is likely in a stall, with a 50% chance of recession in the next two years. Slower growth and payroll data indicate heightened vulnerability. Key indicators suggest stall probabilities of 47%–90%. The bank expects this could lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates 25 basis points in September and December.(*Walter Bloomberg)