
Crypto-常山赵子龙|Aug 02, 2025 15:57
Trading ideas:
With more and more funds from the US stock market and professional trading institutions entering, the trend of the cryptocurrency industry is becoming more and more US stock oriented;
If you find that you were able to make money before, but now it's becoming increasingly difficult to make money, it means you need to adjust your trading system. Although there are still some unique rules in the cryptocurrency industry, it will gradually move closer to the US stock market, with the following characteristics:
1: Most of the time is in a trending market, while a small portion of the time is in a volatile market;
2: The trend begins to become slow and persistent, with the upward trend being relatively slower and the downward trend being relatively faster. In plain terms, it means that when it rises, it keeps rising, and when it falls, it keeps falling, but the speed of decline will be faster than when it rises;
3: At the end of a bear market, there will be a relatively long period of consolidation and market volatility, which is likely to last for more than six months. At the end of a bull market, there will be 1-2 months of peak building and distribution volatility;
The reason why the oscillation at the top of a bull market is not as long as the oscillation at the bottom of a bear market is that it is more difficult to sell than to buy. Most people can buy to the bottom, but the selling position is often not good, either selling early or failing to sell. Therefore, the main force needs to sell in the shortest possible time and wash up the market in the longest possible time;
4: There will no longer be too long oscillation time at the bottom and top of the stage, and most of them will be completed in 1-2 weeks, occasionally with 1-2 months of oscillation;
So players who used to work on bands and oscillations need to gradually adjust, because the time of oscillation market is squeezing, and most of the time it is a slow trend market. Therefore, the opportunities to obtain profits beyond the trend market through longer periods of bands in the cryptocurrency circle are becoming less and less;
The difficulty of doing trend trading lies in how to intervene in the early stage of trend initiation, increase positions in the middle stage, and exit in the later stage, while minimizing wear and tear during the oscillation stage. Corresponding trading strategies should take these into account;
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