The US economy is hot: We have now seen 63 months of US economic expansion, the 7th longest business cycle since 1854. This is above the long-term average of ~42 months and the median of ~30 months. By comparison, the longest period without a recession was between 2008 and 2020, at ~125 months. Since the 1980s, all economic cycle have lasted well above the historical average. Unconventional monetary policies and historically large budget deficits appear to be extending business cycles. What happens if the Fed starts cutting rates?(The Kobeissi Letter)