More evidence of a weakening US labor market: Non-farm payroll growth has failed to exceed +1.15% YoY for the last 4 straight months, marking the weakest increase since before the 2020 pandemic. The last time the job numbers experienced such weakness, excluding 2020, was 14 years ago. Historically, such muted labor market gains have been seen before recessions. Interestingly, non-farm payroll growth remained above +1.40% for 3 months at the start of the 1980s double-dip recessions. The worst part? Recent data does not yet include the annual BLS revisions. The labor is far weaker than many expect.(The Kobeissi Letter)