CM
CM|Jul 22, 2025 02:49
Compared to the rise of ETH in May this time, let me update my viewpoint: thread(1-8) 🧵 This increase is mostly due to institutional fundraising. The influence of Peter Thiel's entry is an emotional catalyst. 3. The highest probability of this stage is that knockoffs begin to adopt "micro strategies", followed by a collapse of weak consensus assets and a decrease in market confidence transmitted to mainstream assets. However, for strong consensus assets, it is an opportunity to buy at the bottom. 4. Strong consensus assets, BTC is basically undisputed in the market, while ETH is controversial, but most likely, the correction of excessive fud sentiment is still ongoing. 5. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has risen to 0.03+, which is expected to have passed the absolute bottom but still has room for improvement. This coin stock structure requires higher sensitivity and greater volatility in the stock market, and the timing of entry is crucial. On the encrypted asset side, it's actually a simple model, but there are indeed more opportunities for degen on the stock side. 7. It's not a perpetual motion machine, neither is MicroStrategy or BTC. It's fundamentally a structural issue. MicroStrategy has a better structure, and the debt is currently more controllable with interest payments. The "new micro strategies" usually have more aggressive tactics, and the core of everything is very simple, which is the financing ability, and what kind of narrative and packaging should be used to strengthen the financing ability, create a good structure, and when there is a risk in the market, there is no need to sell coins, and even continue to raise money. 8. However, the problem is that if small assets also follow suit in large numbers, this gameplay is too aggressive and will definitely be easy to get out of. There is also suspicion of borrowing stocks from the stock market to sell, and compliance risk is also an X factor. Then the market's confidence in this model will decrease, and in severe cases, it will affect mainstream assets, even MicroStrategy and BTC. This is a predictable thunder, but of course, it is also an opportunity to some extent. Everyone has their own opinions.
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