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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Jul 20, 2025 00:26
What is happening here? The BLS just said the number of jobs reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by ~800,000. This comes as the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, covering 97% of employers, showed the US added 607,000 jobs during this period. This is 57% lower than the initially reported 1.4 million in the monthly non-farm payroll (NFP) reports. In other words, there was an unprecedented 793,000 gap between NFP data and QCEW data in March-December 2024. This means jobs were likely overstated by 88,111 PER MONTH, on average, during this time. Something does not add up here.(The Kobeissi Letter)
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