CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve can cut interest rates up to two times this year

Odaily Planet Daily News: CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the inflation in the United States in June basically continued the state of "peaceful times", and the core CPI month on month growth rate was lower than expected for the fifth consecutive month, mainly due to rental inflation and the cooling of used car prices. The soft core inflation this time cannot verify the hypothesis that "tariffs have a slight impact on inflation". In fact, the tracking indicators we constructed, such as "CPI with high import content", show that tariffs have initially affected the prices of sensitive end consumer goods imported into the United States. We still believe that there are hidden concerns about a rebound in US inflation, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is low, with a maximum of two rate cuts within the year. The space for the continued weakening of the US dollar may be limited, and the attractiveness of the current allocation of US bonds may still be weak. (Golden Ten)