
0x长安|Jul 15, 2025 10:24
Estimating Launchpad based on market share and trading volume is not wrong, but we cannot just look at this part. Although Believe only had a market share of 4.5% within 24 hours, its market value should be more than that.
I still prefer to use milk as an example:
Pure milk: a stable commodity used for household consumption, raw material processing, etc
Yogurt: High premium growth plate, combined with functional narrative, meal replacement, probiotics, etc
Pump fun is like pure milk. It provides the most basic coin issuance service with a low threshold. A large number of new coins are issued every minute, and the shelf life is short. The vast majority of Memes issued have a lifespan of only a few hours
And Believe @ Believeapp is like yogurt, whose sales are not as good as pure milk, but it has multiple product narratives, high gross margins, and repeat purchases. The lifecycle of ecological projects is also significantly longer than that of Meme projects.
If Pump Fun is an opportunistic narrative. Its story is about fair launch, lottery culture, overnight wealth, and opportunities in chaos. Its valuation depends on how many people in the market believe in and are willing to participate in this gold rush game.
So Believe is an innovative narrative. Its story is about the developer economy, unlicensed financing, disrupting VC and app stores. Its valuation depends on how many people in the market believe that the new paradigm of ICM can truly incubate valuable applications.
The valuation of a Launchpad cannot be solely based on ecological trading volume, just as dairy companies cannot solely focus on sales volume. We still need to see
1) Has the platform coin captured the value of Launchpad
2) Can narrative sustain a premium
3) Depth of moat and ecological sustainability
So the subsequent Believe only looks at two points:
1) When will Launchcoin be empowered and Believe @ masternak be flywheel?
2) Can the ecological fund just invested by Believe bring interesting projects and more high-quality developers?
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