
The Kobeissi Letter|Jul 10, 2025 16:59
Are wages stagnating in the US?
The share of Americans not receiving any pay raises rose to 13.3%, the highest in 4 years.
This percentage has increased by ~3 points over the last 2 years.
It now exceeds the 2001 recession levels and is in line with 2008 levels.
Adjusted for 2.4% CPI inflation, this implies that millions of Americans are experiencing a decline in real wages.
While top-line employment figures remain robust, underlying job market dynamics are softening.
Is this really a strong labor market?
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