The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Jul 10, 2025 16:59
Are wages stagnating in the US? The share of Americans not receiving any pay raises rose to 13.3%, the highest in 4 years. This percentage has increased by ~3 points over the last 2 years. It now exceeds the 2001 recession levels and is in line with 2008 levels. Adjusted for 2.4% CPI inflation, this implies that millions of Americans are experiencing a decline in real wages. While top-line employment figures remain robust, underlying job market dynamics are softening. Is this really a strong labor market?
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