TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Jul 03, 2025 15:15
The difference in non farm payroll data between large and small may be due to an increase in government employees, which means that people who were previously cut off by Musk DOGE may have been quietly hired back, as the small non farm payroll ADP mainly consists of data from the private sector. After the passage of the Great Beautiful Act, the US fiscal deficit will continue to increase. Musk had worked hard to get back all the people and budgets that he had cut off. He lost both fame and wealth, which is the key point for him to scold Trump every day. The cut off of electric vehicle subsidies is just the last straw to crush camels. After the adoption of the beautiful bill, the biggest effect on the currency circle is actually to raise the debt ceiling and avoid the suspension of the US government. At least Trump is safe during his term of office. There will be some liquidity released to some extent, but raising the debt ceiling cannot be directly equated with interest rate cuts and water releases. Therefore, the bill must be good in the short term after it is passed (on the contrary, if it is not passed, Trump's authority will be challenged, leading to major political events, and the market will certainly fall). Avoiding the problem of insufficient financial budget in the medium to long term. But in the long run, Trump has completely abandoned the route that he claimed during the election to completely change the American system and eradicate problems. So the underlying problems cannot be solved, and the crisis can only be postponed like passing flowers on a drum, further reducing economic redundancy. We can only rely on data and the US stock market to further deepen the degree of detachment from reality to virtuality. The return of manufacturing industry has completely become empty talk, so the long-term depreciation of the US dollar and the loss of US dollar hegemony have become inevitable. Although the anchor switching of the US dollar international monetary system from the three versions of Gold 1.0, Oil 2.0, and stablecoin 3.0 is becoming increasingly unrealistic, it can continue to prolong the US dollar hegemony (measured in terms of ten years). Especially for the financial industry such as the cryptocurrency circle, it is beneficial for us. After all, after my death, I can't touch Trump?
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