Powell sums up why the Fed both expects prices to rise in the near term but has such difficulty forecasting the magnitude: Someone has to pay the tariff, but it's hard to know who. "There's the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer and the retailer and the consumer. And each one of those is going to be trying not to be the one to pay for the tariff, but together they will all pay together, or maybe one party will pay it all."