Herbert Hoover vs. Donald Trump - President Hoover was the last president elected (1929) with US stock market cap over 2x GDP, until President Trump. My base case is the S&P 500 will be down this year to start the third 50% drawdown since 2000. What's different? - Highest US market cap vs. GDP and the world in about a century - The Fed's on hold due to sticky inflation and rapidly rising risk assets - Excessive fiscal spending reaching limits; 5%+ T-bond - Unprecedented US tariffs - Cryptocurrencies led the post 2009 speculation and may lead reversion - The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index is down 13% in 2025 to June 13 Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/sxshebdwx2ps {BI COMD} #gold #bitcoin #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence